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Space Prediction Markets — Outkomes
Climate & Science / Space
16 active events
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Topics in Climate & Science
Daily Temperature
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Natural Disasters
Vol: $7.6M
Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
Probability
+11 MARKETS
SpaceX
86%
+15.0%
Yes
No
2 months left
59
Vol: $1.7M
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by...?
Probability
+4 MARKETS
December 31, 2027
69%
-2.0%
Yes
No
1 year left
32
Vol: $1.2M
Will the Doge-1 Lunar Mission launch by...?
Probability
+2 MARKETS
December 31, 2027
31%
+2.5%
Yes
No
1 year left
45
Vol: $533.7K
How many SpaceX Starship launches reach space in 2026?
Probability
+7 MARKETS
<5
78%
+0.5%
Yes
No
2 months left
20
Vol: $345.8K
How many SpaceX launches in 2026?
Probability
+4 MARKETS
140-159
77%
+4.5%
Yes
No
2 months left
5
Vol: $316.9K
5kt meteor strike in 2026?
Probability
Yes
14%
+0.5%
Yes
No
4 months left
40
Vol: $253.8K
Natural Disaster in 2026?
Probability
Yes
5%
+1.5%
Yes
No
4 months left
17
Vol: $221.7K
Major meteor strike (10kt+) in 2026?
Probability
Yes
4%
-0.4%
Yes
No
4 months left
16
Vol: $119.3K
1 megaton meteor strike in 2026?
Probability
Yes
2%
-0.1%
Yes
No
4 months left
5
Vol: $93.1K
Two SpaceX Starships dock together by…?
Probability
+1 MARKETS
December 31, 2027
61%
-6.0%
Yes
No
1 year left
3
Vol: $30.8K
SpaceX IPO: Officially added to S&P 500 by...?
Probability
+1 MARKETS
March 31, 2027
50%
0.0%
Yes
No
5 months left
3
Vol: $13.3K
SpaceX or OpenAI higher IPO Market Cap?
Probability
SpaceX
83%
-1.6%
SpaceX
OpenAI
1 year left
5
Vol: $12.6K
SpaceX Starship Florida Launch by…?
Probability
+1 MARKETS
June 30, 2027
90%
+0.2%
Yes
No
8 months left
0
Vol: $9.5K
100kt meteor strike in 2026?
Probability
Yes
7%
+0.8%
Yes
No
4 months left
4
Vol: $938.4
Trump Space Academy begins training by June 30, 2027?
Probability
Yes
11%
0.0%
Yes
No
8 months left
0
Vol: $167.5
Will Jeff Bezos go to space before 2028?
Probability
Yes
24%
+0.5%
Yes
No
1 year left
0
