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Fed Rates Prediction Markets — Outkomes
Economy / Fed Rates
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Fed Rates
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Global Rates
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Labor
Vol: $55.6M
How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?
Probability
+12 MARKETS
0 (0 bps)
97%
-0.5%
Yes
No
2 months left
131
Vol: $15.6M
Fed Decision in December?
Probability
+4 MARKETS
25 bps increase
68%
-10.0%
Yes
No
1 month left
9.7K
Vol: $7.1M
What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?
Probability
+14 MARKETS
4.25%
66%
-8.5%
Yes
No
2 months left
5
Vol: $3.9M
Fed rate cut by...?
Probability
+5 MARKETS
July 2027 Meeting
52%
+0.5%
Yes
No
1 year left
31
Vol: $1.9M
What will Fed Rate hit before 2027?
Probability
+19 MARKETS
↑ 4.25%
66%
-10.8%
Yes
No
2 months left
14
Vol: $1.5M
Another Fed rate hike in 2026?
Probability
Yes
66%
-12.0%
Yes
No
1 month left
131
Vol: $1.3M
Fed Decision in January?
Probability
+4 MARKETS
No change
75%
-3.0%
Yes
No
3 months left
9.7K
Vol: $1.1M
How high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027?
Probability
+4 MARKETS
5.3%
18%
+0.5%
Yes
No
2 months left
342
Vol: $602.9K
Fed decisions (Sep–Dec)
Probability
+2 MARKETS
Hike–Pause–Hike
67%
-11.5%
Yes
No
1 month left
36
Vol: $522.6K
How low will 10-year Treasury yield get before 2027?
Probability
+15 MARKETS
Below 4.8%
71%
+3.5%
Yes
No
2 months left
20
Vol: $474.6K
Jerome Powell out of Fed Board by…?
Probability
December 31
9%
0.0%
Yes
No
2 months left
21
Vol: $468.5K
How low will 5-year Treasury yield get before 2027?
Probability
+9 MARKETS
Below 4.55%
77%
+16.0%
Yes
No
2 months left
0
Vol: $319.7K
Jerome Powell federally charged by...?
Probability
December 31, 2026
2%
0.0%
Yes
No
2 months left
34
Vol: $290.9K
How high will 30-year Treasury yield go before 2027?
Probability
+6 MARKETS
5.40%
49%
-15.0%
Yes
No
2 months left
3
Vol: $271.6K
How low will 30-year Treasury yield get before 2027?
Probability
+9 MARKETS
Below 5.25%
93%
+1.5%
Yes
No
2 months left
0
Vol: $262.3K
Fed emergency rate cut before 2027?
Probability
Yes
2%
-0.1%
Yes
No
2 months left
3
Vol: $256.9K
How high will 5-year Treasury yield go before 2027?
Probability
+5 MARKETS
4.90%
41%
-14.0%
Yes
No
2 months left
0
Vol: $166.9K
Fed decisions (Oct-Jan)
Probability
+4 MARKETS
Pause-Hike-Pause
67%
-6.0%
Yes
No
3 months left
36
Vol: $117.8K
Fed Decision in March?
Probability
+4 MARKETS
No change
61%
+13.0%
Yes
No
4 months left
9.7K
Vol: $47.6K
How many dissent at the December Fed meeting?
Probability
+4 MARKETS
0
70%
+0.5%
Yes
No
1 month left
59
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