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OpenAI Prediction Markets — Outkomes
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Prediction Markets
Vol: $7.6M
Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
Probability
+11 MARKETS
SpaceX
86%
+15.0%
Yes
No
2 months left
59
Vol: $4M
Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
Probability
+14 MARKETS
Google
61%
-1.0%
Yes
No
2 months left
4.4K
Vol: $3.1M
OpenAI IPO by...?
Probability
+2 MARKETS
June 30, 2027
46%
-0.5%
Yes
No
8 months left
16
Vol: $2.6M
OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
Probability
+6 MARKETS
No IPO by December 31, 2026
97%
-0.1%
Yes
No
2 months left
22
Vol: $1.6M
OpenAI IPO closing market cap above ___ ?
Probability
+6 MARKETS
$800B
74%
+0.5%
Yes
No
1 year left
3
Vol: $1.4M
Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
Probability
+15 MARKETS
↑$1.3T
72%
+1.0%
Yes
No
2 months left
16
Vol: $1.2M
OpenAI announces another Millennium Prize solution by...?
Probability
+1 MARKETS
December 31, 2027
56%
-0.5%
Yes
No
1 year left
19
Vol: $859.1K
GPT Astra 6.1+ released by...?
Probability
+7 MARKETS
December 31
99%
-0.3%
Yes
No
2 months left
32
Vol: $715.4K
What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
Probability
+7 MARKETS
<$1T
28%
-0.2%
Yes
No
1 year left
3
Vol: $694.1K
OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
Probability
+6 MARKETS
1.5T+
34%
-3.1%
Yes
No
1 year left
22
Vol: $542.8K
OpenAI announces bankruptcy by...?
Probability
+2 MARKETS
December 31, 2029
22%
0.0%
Yes
No
3 years left
5
Vol: $504.9K
Will OpenAI launch a consumer hardware product by...?
Probability
December 31, 2026
14%
-0.5%
Yes
No
2 months left
46
Vol: $473.1K
What kind of product will OpenAI announce in 2026?
Probability
+9 MARKETS
Earbuds/Headphones
12%
0.0%
Yes
No
2 months left
14
Vol: $454.5K
Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?
Probability
Anthropic
98%
-0.1%
Anthropic
OpenAI
1 year left
3
Vol: $363.7K
OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?
Probability
Yes
6%
-1.0%
Yes
No
2 months left
31
Vol: $320.6K
OpenAI $1t+ IPO before 2027?
Probability
Yes
3%
-0.1%
Yes
No
2 months left
9
Vol: $208.1K
U.S. enacts AI safety bill before 2027?
Probability
Yes
10%
+0.5%
Yes
No
2 months left
7
Vol: $195.6K
Who will the OpenAI spy be accused of working for in 2026?
Probability
+9 MARKETS
Saudi Arabia
22%
0.0%
Yes
No
2 months left
2
Vol: $152.9K
Highest OpenAI score on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026?
Probability
+3 MARKETS
55%+
78%
-0.5%
Yes
No
2 months left
2
Vol: $141.8K
Which company's AI will first hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?
Probability
+8 MARKETS
None in 2026
43%
0.0%
Yes
No
2 months left
3
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