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Iran Prediction Markets — Outkomes
World / Iran
142 active events
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Yemen
Vol: $78.1M
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Probability
Yes
13%
0.0%
Yes
No
2 months left
1.2K
Vol: $77.4M
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
Probability
December 31
6%
+1.0%
Yes
No
2 months left
525
Vol: $48.2M
US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?
Probability
+3 MARKETS
March 31
71%
+0.5%
Yes
No
2 months left
929
Vol: $46.6M
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?
Probability
+9 MARKETS
November 3
100%
0.0%
Yes
No
2 months left
496
Vol: $41.6M
US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?
Probability
+1 MARKETS
October 31
100%
0.0%
Yes
No
2 months left
1.1K
Vol: $40.8M
Iran leader end of 2026?
Probability
+29 MARKETS
Mojtaba Khamenei
92%
+0.4%
Yes
No
2 months left
156
Vol: $29.8M
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by...?
Probability
December 31
3%
-0.4%
Yes
No
2 months left
195
Vol: $29.5M
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
Probability
Yes
3%
+0.4%
Yes
No
2 months left
3.7K
Vol: $29.1M
Iran leadership change by...?
Probability
+2 MARKETS
June 30, 2027
25%
+1.5%
Yes
No
8 months left
1.1K
Vol: $22.4M
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by...?
Probability
December 31
2%
+0.1%
Yes
No
2 months left
438
Vol: $21.3M
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…?
Probability
+1 MARKETS
December 31
10%
+3.0%
Yes
No
2 months left
163
Vol: $18.6M
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by...?
Probability
December 31
6%
0.0%
Yes
No
2 months left
219
Vol: $18M
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...?
Probability
+2 MARKETS
December 31
8%
0.0%
Yes
No
2 months left
278
Vol: $16.9M
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
Probability
Yes
10%
-1.0%
Yes
No
2 months left
4.1K
Vol: $11.9M
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?
Probability
Yes
1%
-0.3%
Yes
No
2 months left
58
Vol: $11.1M
Iran full airspace closure by...?
Probability
+1 MARKETS
December 31
26%
+0.5%
Yes
No
2 months left
1K
Vol: $8.7M
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by...?
Probability
+3 MARKETS
December 31, 2027
35%
+1.5%
Yes
No
2 months left
222
Vol: $7.9M
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by...?
Probability
December 31
2%
+0.1%
Yes
No
2 months left
848
Vol: $7.8M
How many different countries will Israel strike in 2026?
Probability
+11 MARKETS
4
79%
+2.4%
Yes
No
2 months left
523
Vol: $7.6M
Mojtaba Khamenei public appearance by...?
Probability
December 31
11%
-0.5%
Yes
No
2 months left
415
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