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Ukraine Prediction Markets — Outkomes
World / Ukraine
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Vol: $31.9M
Putin out as President of Russia by...?
Probability
+2 MARKETS
June 30, 2027
10%
+1.0%
Yes
No
8 months left
457
Vol: $13.2M
NATO x Russia military clash by...?
Probability
+2 MARKETS
December 31
12%
-1.0%
Yes
No
2 months left
558
Vol: $10.5M
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?
Probability
+13 MARKETS
December 31, 2027
69%
-2.0%
Yes
No
8 months left
298
Vol: $6.4M
Will US withdraw from NATO by...?
Probability
December 31
1%
0.0%
Yes
No
2 months left
68
Vol: $6.3M
Russia nuclear test by...?
Probability
December 31, 2026
4%
0.0%
Yes
No
2 months left
10
Vol: $5.6M
Will Russia invade a NATO country by...?
Probability
December 31, 2026
2%
-0.4%
Yes
No
2 months left
64
Vol: $4.2M
Where will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next before 2027?
Probability
+13 MARKETS
No meeting before 2027
95%
-0.4%
Yes
No
2 months left
48
Vol: $3.8M
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?
Probability
Yes
3%
+0.1%
Yes
No
2 months left
269
Vol: $3.5M
Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire by...?
Probability
+2 MARKETS
December 31, 2027
42%
-12.0%
Yes
No
2 months left
50
Vol: $3M
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by...?
Probability
+2 MARKETS
December 31, 2027
31%
0.0%
Yes
No
2 months left
225
Vol: $2.7M
Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by...?
Probability
+2 MARKETS
December 31, 2027
15%
+0.5%
Yes
No
2 months left
128
Vol: $2.5M
Ukraine election held by...?
Probability
December 31, 2026
3%
+0.1%
Yes
No
3 months left
55
Vol: $2.3M
Russia x Ukraine peace talks by...?
Probability
+2 MARKETS
December 31
96%
-1.3%
Yes
No
2 months left
215
Vol: $2.3M
Where will Trump and Putin meet next in 2026?
Probability
+14 MARKETS
China
89%
+1.0%
Yes
No
2 months left
61
Vol: $1.9M
Ukraine election called by...?
Probability
+2 MARKETS
December 31, 2027
68%
+8.5%
Yes
No
1 year left
39
Vol: $1.3M
Ukraine joins NATO before 2027?
Probability
Yes
1%
-0.2%
Yes
No
2 months left
8
Vol: $1.1M
Will Zelenskyy talk to Putin by...?
Probability
December 31
9%
-0.5%
Yes
No
2 months left
15
Vol: $898.7K
Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia by...?
Probability
+2 MARKETS
December 31, 2027
28%
0.0%
Yes
No
2 months left
209
Vol: $812.4K
U.S. nuclear test by...?
Probability
December 31, 2026
4%
+0.4%
Yes
No
2 months left
24
Vol: $794.4K
Who will visit Ukraine by December 31?
Probability
+7 MARKETS
Mark Rutte
38%
-8.5%
Yes
No
2 months left
7
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