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Epstein
Vol: $1.9M
Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?
Probability
Yes
4%
+0.1%
Yes
No
2 months left
105
Vol: $924.7K
Republican Senate seats after the midterms (Lower Brackets)
Probability
+2 MARKETS
44
96%
+1.9%
Yes
No
Ended
14
Vol: $623.9K
Ohio enacts data center moratorium by...?
Probability
+3 MARKETS
December 31, 2028
33%
0.0%
Yes
No
2 years left
0
Vol: $562.7K
Will the GOP use 'Nuclear Option' to break filibuster by...?
Probability
December 31, 2026
10%
-1.5%
Yes
No
2 months left
29
Vol: $517.8K
Which Senators will vote for the Clarity Act?
Probability
+14 MARKETS
John Fetterman
7%
-0.1%
Yes
No
2 months left
1
Vol: $404.1K
2026 Midterms: House Popular Vote Margin of Victory
Probability
+12 MARKETS
Democrats 14-16%
75%
+54.6%
Yes
No
Ended
0
Vol: $252.4K
Next Senate Majority Leader?
Probability
+10 MARKETS
Chuck Schumer
83%
+2.5%
Yes
No
Ended
2
Vol: $203.1K
Which bills will become law in 2026?
Probability
+13 MARKETS
Export-control chip security
43%
+1.0%
Yes
No
2 months left
1
Vol: $198.8K
H.R. 22 (SAVE Act) signed into law in 2026?
Probability
Yes
2%
-0.1%
Yes
No
2 months left
23
Vol: $140.4K
How many Senators will vote for the Clarity Act?
Probability
+7 MARKETS
Above 64
15%
+2.8%
Yes
No
2 months left
0
Vol: $129.8K
Will Trump be impeached before his term ends?
Probability
Yes
71%
-8.0%
Yes
No
2 years left
93
Vol: $123K
Mike Johnson out as Speaker by...?
Probability
December 31, 2026
15%
-2.5%
Yes
No
2 months left
3
Vol: $70.4K
Crypto Market Structure legislation becomes law in 2026?
Probability
Yes
5%
-2.5%
Yes
No
2 months left
0
Vol: $52.7K
2026 Midterms: House Turnout
Probability
+10 MARKETS
120-125m
87%
+29.5%
Yes
No
Ended
0
Vol: $46.5K
Dem sweep & Gas hits $3.50 by end of 2026?
Probability
+1 MARKETS
Dem sweep; No $3.50 gas
94%
+0.4%
Yes
No
2 months left
0
Vol: $38.5K
Speaker of the House after the midterms?
Probability
+5 MARKETS
Hakeem Jeffries
94%
-1.1%
Yes
No
Ended
3
Vol: $32.7K
Trump impeached and removed before 2028?
Probability
Yes
21%
-3.0%
Yes
No
1 year left
2
Vol: $32.6K
Dem sweep & US recession by end of 2027?
Probability
+1 MARKETS
Dem sweep; No recession
62%
-3.4%
Yes
No
1 year left
0
Vol: $32.3K
Next US Senate Minority Leader?
Probability
+8 MARKETS
John Thune
86%
+1.5%
Yes
No
2 months left
0
Vol: $26.1K
Government shutdown by...?
Probability
+1 MARKETS
December 31
31%
-3.0%
Yes
No
2 months left
0
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