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Trump Prediction Markets — Outkomes
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Venezuela
Epstein
Vol: $99.5M
Venezuela leader end of 2026?
Probability
+15 MARKETS
Nicolás Maduro
91%
-0.5%
Yes
No
2 months left
504
Vol: $78.1M
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Probability
Yes
13%
0.0%
Yes
No
2 months left
1.2K
Vol: $48.2M
US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?
Probability
+3 MARKETS
March 31
71%
+0.5%
Yes
No
2 months left
929
Vol: $41.6M
US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?
Probability
+1 MARKETS
October 31
100%
0.0%
Yes
No
2 months left
1.1K
Vol: $36M
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?
Probability
Yes
2%
+0.1%
Yes
No
2 months left
1K
Vol: $29.8M
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by...?
Probability
December 31
3%
-0.4%
Yes
No
2 months left
195
Vol: $29.5M
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
Probability
Yes
3%
+0.4%
Yes
No
2 months left
3.7K
Vol: $25M
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
Probability
Yes
3%
-0.7%
Yes
No
2 months left
389
Vol: $18.6M
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by...?
Probability
December 31
6%
0.0%
Yes
No
2 months left
219
Vol: $15.6M
Fed Decision in December?
Probability
+4 MARKETS
25 bps increase
68%
-10.0%
Yes
No
1 month left
9.7K
Vol: $14.3M
Trump out as President before 2027?
Probability
Yes
4%
-0.1%
Yes
No
2 months left
1.9K
Vol: $13.2M
NATO x Russia military clash by...?
Probability
+2 MARKETS
December 31
12%
-1.0%
Yes
No
2 months left
558
Vol: $11M
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?
Probability
Yes
2%
-0.1%
Yes
No
2 months left
276
Vol: $10.5M
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?
Probability
+13 MARKETS
December 31, 2027
69%
-2.0%
Yes
No
8 months left
298
Vol: $7.1M
What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?
Probability
+14 MARKETS
4.25%
66%
-8.5%
Yes
No
2 months left
5
Vol: $6.4M
Will US withdraw from NATO by...?
Probability
December 31
1%
0.0%
Yes
No
2 months left
68
Vol: $6.3M
Russia nuclear test by...?
Probability
December 31, 2026
4%
0.0%
Yes
No
2 months left
10
Vol: $4.2M
Where will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next before 2027?
Probability
+13 MARKETS
No meeting before 2027
95%
-0.4%
Yes
No
2 months left
48
Vol: $3.7M
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by...?
Probability
+2 MARKETS
December 31
36%
0.0%
Yes
No
2 months left
18
Vol: $3.7M
Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by...?
Probability
+1 MARKETS
December 31
28%
0.0%
Yes
No
Ended
157
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